The Temperature of the Earth
The following calculation assumes that the energy into the Earth system and the energy out are not affected by the atmospheric gasses. When the system is in equilibrium, that is neither warming nor cooling, Energy In must equal Energy Out.
Energy In
Energy enters the Earth system from the sun mainly in the form of visible light. This solar flux is represented by the letter L. The value is 1361 Watts per square metre (W/m2). About 30% of the light from the sun is reflected out of the Earth system, mainly by clouds and ice. The reflectivity of the planet is called the albedo and is represented by the letter α.
Each square metre then absorbs energy from the sun according to the following formula:
L(1 – α)
We are interested in the total energy absorbed. The solar flux varies over the surface of the Earth, strongest at the equator where the surface is perpendicular to the incoming light and weakest at the poles where the surface is at a large angle to the sun’s rays. Adding up all of these variable amounts is tricky but there is a simple method to calculate it. The light waves from the sun are parallel to each other and the Earth intercepts them and casts a shadow. This shadow is a circle which has a simple formula - πr2. So the formula for the total energy from the Sun absorbed by the earth is:
L(1 – α) πr2
Energy out
The formula for the energy that is radiated away from the surface is:
ϵσT4 4 πr2
ϵ is emissivity, how close the source is to a black body (0 not a back body to 1 a black body), σ the Stefan-Boltzman constant, 5.67 X 10-8 (Watts/square metre), T4 is temperature in Kelvin raised to the fourth power, 4πr2 is area of a sphere.
If the system is in equilibrium Energy In equals Energy Out
So
L(1 – α) πr2 = ϵσT4 4 πr2
Calculate Temperature, ie solve for T
πr2 appears on both sides so it can be cancelled
So
L(1 – α) = 4 ϵσT4
With L = 1361 W/m2 α = 0.3 σ = 5.67 X 10-8 and ϵ = 1 (given that Earth is relatively close to being a black body)
T = 254.5 K,
(K is degrees Kelvin. The Kelvin Scale starts at absolute zero ie -2730 Celsius. Note Kelvin temperatures are indicated by K, and do not by convention use a degree (0) sign.)
Consequently 254.5 K equals -18.50 C
Given that the global temperature is about 150 C, according to this calculation the planet should be about 330 C below current temperatures.
This calculation gives a very incorrect answer because it ignores the effect of Greenhouse Gasses.